Steve Green calls it ‘the preference cascade heard around the world.” The election and inauguration of Donald Trump has sent shock waves across the entire planet. Will it be enough to shake both Russia and Ukraine out of their three-year nightmare?
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I may be mistaken, but I heard the Donbas provided a lot of the “spending money” for Ukraine selling minerals ands energy. I’m aware the agriculture in the rest of Ukraine is amazing, knowing it is “the breadbasket of Europe”. But I know it would be a big loss economically for the country to trade it away for peace. Crimea would be the only regional port to deep water for the Russians other than the frozen north and the distant east and the population considers themselves Russian, so it may be tough to not bargain away. I wonder if Ukraine… Read more »
It’s doubtful that the Russians would “buy” something they already own by default. Crimea is in Russian hands and has been since Obama failed to honor the Memorandum of Understanding with Ukraine that was signed by the US and others when the Soviet Union fell. The Donbas is also in Russian hands so … I don’t think I understand what you’re getting at here. It wouldn’t make any sense for Ukraine to “buy” their own territory and Ukraine doesn’t have the money if it did make sense. Conversely the Russians are sure as heck not going to “buy” something they… Read more »
Thanks for the info. I know little about this stuff other than what my “grazing” on the internet has revealed. You seem much better informed.
Vlad’s idea of “national peace and unity” is ALL Russian people’s are controlled by Russia no matter where they are, and if their are enough of them Russia can claim that area as being part and parcel of Russia.
Respectfully; the Boys are missing a big point; and they have lots of company. Realistically Putin remains in power by the sufferance of the thieving oligarchs and military powers; not that there is often a difference. Once their wealth and safety are seriously endangered they will do whatever they need to do to protect their foreign bank accounts, foreign real estate, their yachts moored in exotic locales, as well as their family, mistresses and sundry other hangers-on. They care little about the Dombas, the historical roots of the Kievian Rus, or Putin. That is the pressure point that matters; that… Read more »
Am I remembering things wrong, or didn’t we have sanctions on a bunch of them? I forget which administration that was under, though the fact that several of them kept falling out of windows probably also factors in.
That’s a pressure point, sort of. It’s not the only one and how much it matters is highly debatable. While there is definitely some influence there which cannot be ignored with complete impunity — It’s not that Putin remains in power by the sufferance of the thieving oligarchs, it’s that the thieving oligarchs get away with their thievery because allowing them to do so benefits Putin. There have been an awful lot of Russian millionaires and billionaires that have met an untimely demise under more than suspicious circumstances. In three years alone between 2014 and 2017 there were 38 such… Read more »
Like it or not, approve or not, Putin is most likely going to end up with the Donbas. That’ll have to be the bone Trump throws to him simply because of how badly Biden screwed this whole pooch. The history books will show that Putin won his pound of flesh the day that Biden said he needed to be deposed. That put the Russian people squarely behind Putin and put the bone in Putin’s teeth. That was arguably among the very stupidest things in a bewildering forest of stupid things Biden did. The Donbas is a coal producing region and… Read more »
Do you think they could trade Crimea for the Donbas? There were elections (contested as I understand) where the Donbas region claimed it wanted to split from Ukraine and join Russia, (and that was, as I understand, part of the fig leaf covering this war) and maybe that would be the face saving excuse for Ukraine on losing it. Crimea is not contiguous with Russia and makes less sense for them to have, unless there is some population claim (beyond Russia’s “they’re really russian” claims)?
I doubt that will happen simply because Crimea is a built-up, well developed Russian military asset. The Russians would likely not agree to any “deal” that included giving back Crimea. The ship sailed on that one thanks to Obama and his particular brand of military weakness*. Russia ceding Crimea would be from a Russian perspective like us giving Gitmo back to the Cubans. Not gonna happen. There are important differences between Crimea and Gitmo so I’m not saying there’s a direct equivalency. I’m just saying that Russia would resist abandoning Crimea the same as we would resist abandoning Guantanamo Bay.… Read more »